The availability of effective monoclonal antibodies, dexamethasone, and other treatments and the use of nonpharmacological interventions, such as proning, have meaningfully increased the chances of survival for those with access to high-quality healthcare.64Stephan Ehrmann et al., Awake prone positioning for COVID-19 acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure: A randomised, controlled, multinational, open-label meta-trial, Lancet: Respiratory Medicine, December 1, 2021, Volume 9, Number 12; Peter Horby et al., Dexamethasone in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, The New England Journal of Medicine, February 25, 2021. but the real-world impact of their use at scale is not yet known, and supplies of paxlovid are still scaling.38CDC Health Advisory: Using Therapeutics to Prevent and Treat COVID-19, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), December 31, 2021, emergency.cdc.gov; Berkeley Lovelace, Jr., Covid pills are easier to find as the Omicron surge subsides, NBC News, February 23, 2022, nbcnews.org. The trajectory of UK and US cases has enabled the beginnings of a transition toward normalcy,105See our earlier perspectives, below, for definitions of normalcy and herd immunity. In countries where vaccination rates remain low, the prospects for ending the pandemic remain largely tied to the availability and administration of additional doses. An annoying childhood infection, New York Times, January 12, 2021, nytimes.com. the efficacy rate may not prove high enough to drive herd immunity. 45762, nature.com. As immunity wanes, however, the next stage remains highly uncertain. Our own analysis supports the view of others that the Delta variant has effectively moved overall herd immunity out of reach in most countries for the time being. Australia Last week, Andrews flagged the vaccinated economy, QR codes and isolation requirements for close contacts of Covid-19 cases could be scrapped after the latest outbreak peaked. Estimated case-detection rates range from 3:1 to 10:1.2Charlie Giattino, How epidemiological models of COVID-19 help us estimate the true number of infections, Our World in Data, August 24, 2020, ourworldindata.org; Hazhir Rahmandad, John Sterman, and Tse Yang Lim, Estimating COVID-19 under-reporting across 86 nations: Implications for projections and control, medRxiv, August 3, 2020, medrxiv.org.
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